Numerical Markets: The Innovation Nobody's Talking About
Binary markets fragment liquidity. Numerical prediction markets concentrate it. Discover how trading probability distributions transforms financial event forecasting.
Binary prediction markets are intuitive: "Will AAPL earnings beat estimates? Yes or No."
But they're also inefficient.
Want to express a view on how much earnings will beat? You need multiple binary markets: "Will AAPL beat by >5%?", "Will AAPL beat by >10%?", "Will AAPL beat by >15%?" Each fragments liquidity. Each requires separate capital.
Numerical markets solve this elegantly.
Instead of yes/no, you trade ranges: $1.20-$1.30, $1.30-$1.40, $1.40-$1.50. One market expresses the entire probability distribution. Liquidity concentrates instead of fragments. You can trade the full curve, not just arbitrary thresholds.
This matters most where it matters most: financial events with continuous outcomes. Earnings per share. CPI readings. Unemployment rates. Oil inventories. These aren't binary—they're distributions.
The advantages compound:
Market makers provide tighter spreads (liquidity concentrated)
Traders express precise views (not forced into binary buckets)
Hedgers match their actual exposure (not over/under hedging to fit binary contracts)
Numerical markets aren't just a feature. They're a fundamental rethink of how prediction markets should work for financial events. Binary is fine for "Will X happen?" Numerical is essential for "What value will X be?"
Netty launches with both. Binary for discrete outcomes. Numerical for everything that's better expressed as a distribution.
The best prediction market isn't the one with the most markets. It's the one with the right market structure.